The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced the conclusion of the southwest monsoon, known locally as *habagat*, on October 5, 2026. This shift marks the end of the rainy season across western Luzon and the Visayas.
PAGASA observed a notable change in weather patterns, including a decrease in rainfall and wind intensity associated with the southwest monsoon. The agency attributed this to a strengthening high-pressure system over East Asia and a southward movement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is now the primary weather influence in the country.
Transitioning Weather Patterns
As the country transitions to the northeast monsoon or *amihan*, characterized by cooler and drier air, PAGASA cautioned that the ongoing El Niño phenomenon could significantly impact weather conditions. The agency predicts heightened temperatures and reduced rainfall through the end of the year and into early 2027.
The current El Niño is expected to be very strong in the fourth quarter of 2026, leading to hotter-than-normal conditions across most regions of the Philippines.
PAGASA
- October 2026 – 1 or 2 tropical cyclones expected
- November 2026 – 1 or 2 tropical cyclones expected
- December 2026 – 1 or 2 tropical cyclones expected
- January 2027 – 0 or 1 tropical cyclones possible
- February 2027 – slim chance of tropical cyclones
- March 2027 – slim chance of tropical cyclones
While the northeast monsoon generally indicates cooler weather, PAGASA warns that the effects of El Niño could lead to droughts and dry spells in many areas. Additionally, other weather systems such as the ITCZ, shear lines, and localized thunderstorms may still bring rainfall intermittently.