The southwest monsoon, known locally as *habagat*, is anticipated to bring heavy rainfall to select areas of Luzon and Western Visayas, although the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reports that fewer regions will be significantly impacted.
In a briefing on August 10, 2026, PAGASA indicated that while some areas are experiencing improved weather, vigilance is still essential due to saturated soil conditions that heighten flood risks.
Rainfall Projections and Areas at Risk
The forecast indicates that the heaviest rainfall will occur from Monday afternoon, August 10, to Tuesday afternoon, August 11. Following this period, rain is expected to taper off.
PAGASA also noted that the La Mesa Dam in Quezon City breached its spilling level, measuring 80.17 meters by 5 PM on August 10. This situation raises significant concerns for nearby communities, particularly those near the Tullahan River.
Communities in Quezon City, as well as Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, and Valenzuela, are at risk of flooding due to La Mesa Dam overflow.
PAGASA Official
The recent rains have already led to tragic outcomes, with reports of at least eight fatalities attributed to the combined effects of the southwest monsoon and two tropical cyclones, Luis and Maymay.
While the tropical storm Peilou, currently positioned 3,000 kilometers east of Northern Luzon, is not expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, PAGASA continues to monitor its trajectory.
Historically, the southwest monsoon can lead to severe flooding, particularly in urban areas where drainage systems are often overwhelmed. Authorities are urging residents to remain alert.