The Philippine economy is estimated to have grown by 3.4% in the first quarter of 2026, according to economists' projections. This marks a slight improvement from the previous quarter's growth of 3%, yet it remains below the government's target of 5% to 6%.
The growth figures come amid a fragile recovery, disrupted by global energy price surges linked to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is expected to release the official GDP data on May 7.
Nicholas Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., noted that while growth has rebounded, it still faces challenges. He highlighted that households are struggling with high debt and rising prices.
Growth remains subdued as households attempt to manage debt levels and contend with rising prices.
Nicholas Mapa, Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.
Recent reports indicate that government spending may also fall short, further complicating economic recovery efforts.
The sluggish growth in late 2025, which was the slowest in 16 years outside of pandemic-related disruptions, was exacerbated by a corruption scandal that undermined public confidence and spending.
Economists warn that external pressures, particularly from the Middle East, continue to pose risks. Sarah Tan from Moody’s predicts that these factors will negatively impact consumer spending and export activities.
These would have taken a toll on consumers’ purchasing power, business sentiments and exports in the first quarter.
Sarah Tan, Moody's
Meanwhile, analysts at Capital Economics anticipate that while growth may have improved in early 2026, the impact of geopolitical tensions will hinder further economic expansion.