[OPINION] Twilight time for the CPP-NPA’s forever war

The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing, the New People’s Army (NPA), are grappling with a crisis that may signal the end of their decades-long insurgency. Over the last few years, government counter-insurgency strategies have severely weakened the CPP-NPA, leading to a decline in their numbers and influence.

A Historical Perspective

Since its formation in 1968, the CPP-NPA has oscillated between periods of growth and decline. Initially, during the Marcos regime, the NPA grew rapidly, adopting Maoist tactics to establish itself as a formidable force. However, after a peak in the late 1980s, the organization began to stagnate.

The CPP-NPA has suffered grave setbacks. Estimates suggest their ranks have dwindled to between 1,200 and 2,000 fighters.

International Crisis Group

• CPP-NPA's highest strength reported at 25,000 fighters in the late 1980s.
• Current estimates suggest only 1,200 to 2,000 fighters remain.

The CPP's rigid adherence to outdated Maoist principles has hindered its ability to adapt to modern realities. While the global landscape for communist movements has shifted, the CPP-NPA remains entrenched in tactics from a bygone era.

Under President Duterte's administration, the Philippines adopted a 'whole-of-nation' strategy to combat insurgency. This approach, continued by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has resulted in significant military operations against the NPA, leading to a reported reduction of active guerrilla fronts.

The Path Forward

Critics argue that the CPP-NPA must reconsider its strategies. Historical parallels can be drawn with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which transitioned from armed struggle to political engagement. The CPP could benefit from pursuing a political settlement rather than a futile military victory.

As the CPP-NPA continues to face unprecedented challenges, the possibility of reform and adaptation could determine its future. Embracing democratic processes may offer a path to relevance in a society that has evolved beyond its original revolutionary objectives.